... Bank rate cut may not materialize. Asian stock markets tracked the overnight decline in US markets, ... basis points to fight inflationary pressures. The Chinese yuan, which touched a post-revaluation high of ...
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Most Asian currencies down on growth worries, weak stocks
Forex - Dollar extends fall vs yen in afternoon trade on Japan exports, US woes
... Forex - Dollar extends fall vs yen in afternoon trade on Japan exports, US woes HONG KONG (Thomson Financial) ... in afternoon Asian trade on Wednesday after Japanese exports grew at a faster pace last ...
Euro Skyrockets As Trichet Intensifies Hawkish Tone
... European exporters and weakness in the European equities markets. In his testimony before the European Parliament, ... secondary effects of wage increases, particularly in Germany. He warned of downside risks but said ...
Getting Over International Investing
... And yet some of last years biggest winners--Germany, India and especially China--are deep in bear ... gasoline approaches $4 a gallon. Either the equity markets are in complete denial, and U.S. markets ...
Egypts Suez Cement 2007 net jumps 43 percent
... news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Reuters ...
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Three big headaches
... East, where the oil comes from, the Iraq war has been going on for five ... of life. Watch the Asian and European stock markets reel and rock as a result of ...
The "Isms" That Bedevil Bush
... is to remain always a child." With Iraq entering its sixth year, the dollar sinking ... a Nobel Prize for proving, when the stock market bubble, caused by the Feds easy money ...
Currency: Dollar closes higher on equities
... selling," said Minoru Shioiri, chief manager of forex trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. "Those who ... dlr/stg 40.26p 40.47p NZ TWI 71.63 71.36 Australian dollar US91.08c US91.55c Euro/US dollar 1.5548 1.5599 ...
PM: we want cooperation with Moscow
... week with the inauguration of a new stock exchange system in Baghdad. 24 March 2008 (Iraq ... Cairo International Industrial Exhibition, organized by the Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Industry from (18 ...
Research Now - AGM Statement
... Spain, USA, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Switzerland, Republic of Ireland, Austria, Sweden, Poland, Denmark, ... on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange (AIM: RNOW) This information is provided by ...
Automaker Tatas presence already felt
... platform from the ground up for a Chinese automaker. Incats engineers in Michigan work with ... company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and traces its origins to the 1860s, ... automakers from Detroit, Europe, India, Japan and China. Employment at Incats Novi headquarters and Troy ...
McVicar Product Chosen By National Torch Plan Of China - Quick Facts
... Product Chosen By National Torch Plan Of China - Quick Facts MCV.V McVicar Resources Inc. ... one of the chemical products from its Chinese subsidiary Zhejiang Hongbo Chemical Co. Ltd. has ... of 2.54 million shares on the Toronto stock exchange. BBD-A.TO is currently trading at C$5.57, down ...
Albanese sees the Chinese link as Rios
... Chinalco could use the global fall in equity markets to increase its 9 per cent stake ... should be welcomed not blocked, just as Japanese investment was welcomed in the 1970 and ...
BRICs catch the wind of prosperity
... have become the hot investment story. Their stock markets have beaten the rest of the world ... credit squeezes, subprime housing collapses, assassinations in Pakistan or other factors preoccupying western investors, though ...
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Isolagen sells its Swiss facility
... said today that it has sold its Switzerland facility for $6.4 million. About $5.85 million ... that it was notified by the American Stock Exchange that it no longer meets the exchanges ...
Ithmaar Bank lists on the Kuwait Stock Exchange
... of Bahrain and listed on the Bahrain Stock Exchange (ITHMR). It has a paid-up capital of ... company, headquartered in Bahrain), Faisal Private Bank (Switzerland), Faysal Bank Limited (Pakistan), First Leasing Bank ...
Stocks May Open Modestly Lower Ahead Of Consumer Confidence Report - U.S. Commentary
... Report - U.S. Commentary (RTTNews) - The stock markets are looking to open modestly lower on ... which coincided with the start of the Iraqi war. Economist had been expecting a less ...
Anadolu Cam to Start Building Glass Factory in Russia in April
... Cam to Start Building Glass Factory in Russia in April Anadolu Cam Sanayii AS, a ... said in a filing with the Istanbul Stock Exchange late yesterday. The new plant will have ...
GOIC and Fincorp team up in GCC venture
... Gulf Organisation for Industrial Consulting (GOIC) and Egypt-based Fincorp Investment Holding have agreed to set ... these companies for public subscription through the stock market at a later stage. The agreement follows ...
Cancellation of the Trading Facility on the AIM market
... in President Steyn Gold Mines (Free State) (Pty) Ltd to Pamodzi Gold Limited ("Pamodzi") (JSE: PZG) under the terms of a Sale of Shares and Claims Agreement dated 29 ...
Monday, March 24, 2008
Company Upgrade: Introduces Victory Energy to our Small Cap Portfolio
... world renowned independent research firm, based in Johannesburg, South Africa. Along with walking investors through ... of 1933 and Sections 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and are subject to ...
Investec banks on minor sub-prime risk
... executive Stephen Koseff that the groups sub-prime exposure was relatively insignificant resulted in both JSE-listed Investec and LSE-listed Investec plcs shares bucking the pre- Easter weekend slump. Investec gained ...
Silver Market Update - Mar 23
Although it may retreat a little more over the next week or two, Silver is now at/close to buying territory after its violent correction last week. Much of what has been written in the Gold Market update applies equally to silver and so readers
Volatility continues in commodities
By Jon NadlerSilver lost another $1.48 or 8.5%, falling to $16.94 per ounce. Platinum dropped $39 to $1865.00 per ounce and palladium lost $18 to $438.00 as the entire complex was battered by the freefall in gold
Saudi Arabia says working to ensure oil supply
RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the worlds largest oil exporter, said on Sunday it was working to expand its oil production and refinery capacity in order to maintain world economic growth.
Saturday, March 22, 2008
China Feb FX reserves hit $1.65 trillion
BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinas foreign exchange reserves jumped $57.3 billion in February to $1.6471 trillion, almost matching Januarys surprising leap of $61.6 billion, two sources familiar with the data told Reuters on Friday.
Surprise! Dow scores a win after Bears fall
But markets experience big gyrations after Sundays fire sale of Bear Stearns to JPMorgan Chase. Gold closes above $1,000 for the first time. After offering aid to banks over the weekend, the Fed is expected to cut key rates on Tuesday.
Making sense of this bizarre market
Any hint of trouble these days sends Wall Street into a new round of panic selling and a rush to pile up the cash that might be needed to stave off lenders.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Humana, Following WellPoint, Cuts Earnings Forecast
(Bloomberg) -- Humana Inc., the second-largest seller of Medicare drug plans, followed rival WellPoint Inc. in cutting its 2008 earnings forecast as prescription costs jumped. The insurer fell the most ever in New York trading.
Humana's revised forecast stems from ``updated projections'' for the company's Medicare prescription drug plans, a stand-alone drug benefit sold to Americans age 65 and older. Humana has been racing UnitedHealth Group Inc., the largest seller of Medicare drug plans, to gain more members and has lowered some prices as a result, analysts said.
Humana, of Louisville, Kentucky, fell 26 percent, or $12.14, to $35.24 at 9:37 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. It dropped 24 percent yesterday. The industry selloff that began two days ago continued as WellPoint, UnitedHealth and Aetna Inc. also declined. Investors yesterday cut $24 billion in value from the four biggest U.S. insurers.
``Humana priced their drug plan too low in order to gain market share, and we're seeing the result of that today,'' said Sheryl Skolnick, a CRT Capital Group analyst in Stamford, Connecticut, in a telephone interview. ``They are offering a plan with zero co-pays for a 90-day supply of generics through RightSource, their mail-order. And when you tell seniors something is free, they keep coming back again and again.''
Earnings will range from $4 to $4.25 a share, rather than the $5.35 to $5.55 given on Feb. 4, Humana said in a statement. First-quarter earnings will be 44 cents to 46 cents a share, down from a forecast of 80 cents to 85 cents, the insurer said.
House's Frank Says Muni-Bond Ratings Are `Ridiculous'
Bloomberg) -- U.S. Representative Barney Frank said it is ``ridiculous'' that bond-rating companies apply tougher standards to local government debt as he prepares to hold a hearing on the soaring interest costs of municipalities.
California Treasurer Bill Lockyer and other state officials are calling for Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service, and Fitch Ratings to change a system they say costs taxpayers by exaggerating the risk that states and cities will default on their debts. Every state except Louisiana would be AAA if measured by the scale used for corporate borrowers, according to research by Moody's Investors Service.
``This notion of having a separate standard for the municipals because they would do too well on the other standard is ridiculous,'' Frank, the Democrat who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, told reporters in Washington yesterday.
Frank's committee today opens a hearing into how states, local governments and other tax-exempt borrowers, which have $2.6 trillion of debt outstanding, are being hurt by the crisis in confidence in U.S. financial markets. The interest costs on auction-rate securities, a type of debt used by municipalities, has almost doubled since January and investors have also demanded higher yields on tax-exempt bonds backed by insurers that are struggling to maintain their own credit ratings.
Insurers' Investments
``The bad investments they have made have dragged down the value of the municipal issuers and cost money for people who want to build schools and roads,'' Frank said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.
Lockyer at today's hearing plans to ask Congress to pressure the rating companies to change their system, spokesman Tom Dresslar said. Other witnesses set to testify include Ajit Jain, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp., Laura Levenstein, a senior managing director for Moody's, and New York's superintendent of insurance, Eric Dinallo.
``The current system makes no sense,'' said Dresslar. ``Taxpayers wind up paying billions of dollars in higher interest rates and insurance premiums.''
Because ratings are typically lower on the municipal scale, local governments have paid insurance companies to back their bonds with AAA ratings, seeking to reduce borrowers' costs. With insurers' ratings under pressure because of losses on mortgage debts, states, cities and hospitals have faced higher interest costs on floating-rate bonds backed by the guarantors as investors shun the debt.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Market slips on economic fears, McDonald's gains
(Reuters) - U.S. stocks slipped on Monday as mounting concerns about the economy overshadowed stronger-than-expected same-store sales from McDonald's Corp
TIPS' Yields Show Fed Has Lost Control of Inflation
(Bloomberg) -- Bond investors have never been so sure that the Federal Reserve will lose control of inflation. They're so convinced that they're giving up yields just to buy debt securities that protect against rising consumer prices.
The yield on the five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security due in 2012 has been negative since Feb. 29, and traded today at minus 0.17 percent. The notes, which were first sold in 1997, have never before traded below zero. Even so, firms from Deutsche Asset Management to Vanguard Group Inc., the second- biggest U.S. mutual fund company, say TIPS are a bargain.
For the first time in a generation, money managers must come to grips with a central bank that's more intent on spurring the economy than restraining price increases. With oil above $100 a barrel, gold approaching $1,000 an ounce and the dollar at a record low against the euro, TIPS show investors aren't convinced Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will be able to tame inflation once policy makers stop cutting interest rates.
``The way TIPS are trading now, investors believe headline inflation will stay lofty and are willing to give up the real yield for that,'' said Brian Brennan, a money manager who helps oversee $11 billion in fixed-income assets at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. based in Baltimore. Prices for the securities indicate ``a real concern of a recession and high headline inflation,'' he said.
Because TIPS pay a principal amount that rises in tandem with the consumer price index, buyers accept lower yields in a bet the inflation adjustment will make up the difference.
Volcker Fed
Investors typically determine what they are willing to receive in interest by deducting the rate of inflation expected over the life of the securities from the rate on a comparable Treasury. Investors can still earn money from TIPS with sub-zero rates because the principal rises with the CPI.
Five-year TIPS yielded 2.36 percentage points less than similar-maturity Treasuries as of 9:14 a.m. in New York. The so- called breakeven rate has risen from a four-and-a-half-month low of 1.89 percent on Jan. 23, the day after policy makers cut their target lending rate by three-quarters of a point to 3.50 percent in an emergency move.
The last time investors were so worried about faster inflation amid slowing growth, Paul A. Volcker presided over a Fed that would raise rates as high as 20 percent to end the stagflation crisis of the 1970s, according to Seth Plunkett, a bond fund manager at American Century Investment Management in Mountain View, California. The firm manages $20 billion.
Fed Forecast
Inflation ``is going to be higher than the Fed's targeted area,'' said Plunkett, whose fund owns a greater percentage of TIPS than contained in the index he uses to measure performance.
In forecasts released last month, the Fed said it expects inflation to accelerate 2.1 percent to 2.4 percent this year, and 1.7 percent to 2 percent in 2009.
TIPS have returned 6.2 percent this year, compared with 3.7 percent from regular Treasuries, according to indexes compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. Mutual funds that specialize in inflation-linked debt attracted a net $2.87 billion in January, boosting their assets to $47.6 billion, according the latest data available from Financial Research Corp. in Boston. In all of 2007, the funds added a net $3.54 billion.
``TIPS are a really good buy,'' said Bill Chepolis, a money manager who helps oversee $9 billion at Deutsche Asset Management in New York. He bought five-year TIPS in the last six months. ``They're cheap with the Fed continuing to emphasize growth over inflation and inflation continuing to come in higher.''
ECB's Trichet `Concerned' About Euro's Appreciation
(Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said he's ``concerned'' about the euro's appreciation, intensifying his rhetoric after the currency climbed to a record against the dollar.
``We're concerned about excessive exchange-rate moves in the present circumstances,'' Trichet told reporters in Basel, Switzerland today. It's the first time Trichet has specifically expressed worry about the currency since November, when he opposed ``brutal'' moves.
The euro fell as much as 0.3 percent after the comments before rebounding, as investors decided Trichet's ability to weaken the currency is limited. The strongest European inflation in 14 years is preventing the ECB from cutting interest rates while the Federal Reserve is slashing borrowing costs to stave off recession in the world's largest economy.
``Trichet is making a distinct change in emphasis,'' said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in London. Still, ``while the ECB is on hold and the Fed is cutting rates, rate differentials will continue to move in support for the euro.''
The euro rose to a record $1.5459 on March 7, a day after Trichet declined to sound a warning following the ECB's decision to leave its key rate unchanged at 4 percent.
`Strong Dollar'
On that occasion Trichet noted only that U.S. authorities support a ``strong dollar,'' an observation he repeated today with ``extreme attention.'' U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said March 7 that a strong dollar is ``in our nation's interest.''
Unlike the Fed, which has cut its benchmark interest rate 2.25 percentage points since September, Trichet's ECB has refused to reduce rates with inflation in breach of its 2 percent goal.
By signaling an unwillingness to take action, the ECB is indicating ``tacit support for its record-high euro as it uses currency policy to contain inflationary pressures rather than monetary policy,'' said Ashraf Laidi, a currency analyst at CMC Markets in New York.
ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark told a conference in Paris on March 7 that the ECB does not target a euro-dollar exchange rate. Currency developments ``should be taken into account by monetary policy only to the extent that they have a medium-term influence'' on inflation, he said.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
ECB holds rates, seen forecasting lower growth
(Reuters) - The European Central Bank kept euro zone interest rates unchanged at 4.0 percent on Thursday, and will publish updated economic forecasts which analysts will scrutinize for guidance on future monetary policy.
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is due to comment on the competing threats of high euro zone inflation and slower growth at 1330 GMT when he holds his monthly news conference and delivers a quarterly update to the bank's economic projections.
All 72 economists polled by Reuters last week expected the ECB to keep rates on hold this month for a ninth month in a row <ECB/INT>, and the euro was little moved versus the dollar <EUR=>, despite hitting a record high of $1.5349 earlier in the day.
Economists expect ECB staff to forecast lower growth but higher inflation for this year and possibly for 2009, highlighting the Governing Council's dilemma as food and energy prices climb. It is not helped by the strong euro, which holds back inflation but also hampers growth.
Annual inflation in the 15-nation region hit a record high of 3.2 percent in January and February, dampening expectations that the ECB would soon follow other major central banks and loosen monetary policy.
Many economists believe the inflation projections will be revised up. BNP Paribas economist Ken Wattret said he expected the 2009 forecast to be raised to 1.9 or 2.0 percent from the current midpoint forecast of 1.8 percent.
A worsening inflation outlook would make it difficult for the ECB to justify lower interest rates, and mixed economic data and high uncertainty will color the discussion.
Wal-Mart's February Sales Rise; Gap, AnnTaylor Fall
(Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s February sales gained more than it expected as cash-strapped consumers seeking food and basic clothing cut spending at Limited Brands Inc., AnnTaylor Stores Corp. and Gap Inc.
Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, said today in a statement that sales at stores open at least a year rose 2.6 percent last month, beating its estimate for a gain of 2 percent or less.
Shoppers headed to discounters and warehouse clubs to stock up on food and necessities, shunning lightweight jackets and sweaters at department stores and mall-based retailers. A decline in jobs, gasoline costing more than $3 a gallon and the continued erosion of the housing market have caused consumers to limit spending.
``We are seeing the consumer trading down,'' Fred Crawford, managing director at AlixPartners LLP, a Southfield, Michigan-based consulting firm, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. ``You've got a large swing set in Middle America. In good times, they buy up into department store categories, and in tougher times, they buy down into mass categories.''
U.S. retailers' same-store sales may have risen 0.5 percent to 1 percent last month, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. The New York-based trade organization reports monthly results later today.
Companies in the U.S. unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in February, the first decline in almost five years, according to a private report based on payroll data from ADP Employer Services released yesterday. The University of Michigan/Reuters index of consumer confidence fell last month to its lowest level since 1992.
Retail Shares
Wal-Mart climbed 55 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $50.10 at 8:19 a.m. in trading before the New York Stock Exchange opened. Gap fell 4.7 percent.
The 31-member Standard & Poor's 500 Retailing Index has dropped 5.2 percent this year before today, compared with a 9.2 percent decline for the S&P 500 Index.
Limited Brands, the owner of the Victoria's Secret lingerie chain, said February same-store sales dropped 9 percent, better than analyst estimates for a 10.9 percent drop.
Staples Inc., the world's largest office-supplies retailer, reduced its full-year profit and sales forecast March 4 as customers at its North American retail stores reduced purchases of copiers and desks.
``The core economy, the part that's really relevant to Staples and Staples' customers, is declining,'' Staples Chief Financial Officer John Mahoney said in a telephone interview. ``From the perspective of our customers and our business, this is a recession now.''
February Sales
February tends to be the least important sales month in the first quarter for many retailers, comprising about 30 percent of discounters' quarterly revenue, according to Christine Augustine, a retail analyst at Bear Stearns Cos.
With ``sluggish'' traffic, most retailers may be ``playing defense'' by managing inventory and cutting costs, she wrote in a Feb. 29 research note.
``Aside from Valentine's Day and President's Day, and the demand for consumables and other necessities, we think consumers had few reasons to shop in February, particularly given the tough economic backdrop,'' Augustine wrote.
AnnTaylor, the clothing retailer that caters to women ages 25 to 55, said February same-store sales dropped 1.7 percent, less than the average analyst forecast for a 3.1 percent decrease. Gap, the largest U.S. clothing retailer, said sales fell 6 percent, almost twice the 3.1 percent decline estimated by analysts.
Oil Advances to Record $105.97 as Dollar Drops to All-Time Low
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record $105.96 a barrel in New York as the U.S. dollar fell to its lowest ever against the euro.
Gold and copper also advanced to all-time highs as the sinking dollar made commodities priced in the U.S. currency cheaper. Oil closed at a record yesterday after U.S. crude inventories fell for the first time in eight weeks and OPEC refrained from raising production.
``The reason we've gone above $105 is that the market is still focused on the weakness of the dollar,'' Olivier Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix Gmbh in Zug, Switzerland, said. ``It's going to take more signs of demand destruction around the world before oil stops gaining on the dollar.''
Crude oil for April delivery rose as much as $1.45, or 1.4 percent, to a $105.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since futures began trading in 1983. The contract traded for $105.15 at 1:11 p.m. in London.
Brent crude for April settlement rose as much as $1.31, or 1.3 percent, to match the $102.95 a barrel record previously set on March 3. The contract was at $102 on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange at 1:14 p.m. local time.
The euro climbed to $1.5347, the highest level since the single currency's debut in 1999, on speculation the European Central Bank will hold its key interest rate at a more than six- year high as the Federal Reserve keeps cutting its benchmark rate.
``If you think the dollar will weaken then you may choose to sell the dollar and go long commodities,'' said Harry Tchilinguirian, senior analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``Robust fundamental outlooks, as in the case for oil, present potential to strongly offset the decline in the nominal value of the dollar.''
Carlyle Fund Gets Default Notice After Margin Calls
(Bloomberg) -- Carlyle Group's publicly traded mortgage bond fund failed to meet margin calls and said it received a notice of default.
Carlyle Capital Corp. missed four of seven margin calls yesterday totaling more than $37 million, the Guernsey, U.K.- based fund said today in a statement. The fund expects to get at least one more notice of default related to the margin calls.
The collapse of the subprime mortgage market has prompted investors to flee all but the safest forms of debt, leading to the failure of hedge funds including Peloton Partners LLP. The Carlyle fund raised $300 million in July and used loans to buy about $22 billion of AAA rated so-called agency mortgage securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
``The credit crisis is spilling over to the next asset class, agency bonds,'' said Philip Gisdakis, senior credit strategist at UniCredit SpA in Munich. ``There's never just one cockroach. If you see one highly leveraged hedge fund going bust, then there's another on the way.''
Peloton, the London-based hedge-fund firm run by former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partners, announced plans last week to liquidate its ABS Fund after ``severe'' losses on mortgage-backed debt and demands from banks to repay loans. Thornburg Mortgage Inc. in Santa Fe, New Mexico, plummeted 62 percent in New York trading this week after the home lender received a default notice on a $320 million loan.
Widening Spreads
Carlyle Capital, run by John Stomber, fell 1.7 percent in Amsterdam trading today to $11.80. The fund originally sold shares at $19 each. Emma Thorpe, a London-based spokeswoman for U.S. private-equity firm Carlyle Group, declined to comment.
The agency mortgage-bond market has about $4.5 trillion of securities, according to estimates from UniCredit. The spread between 30-year agency mortgage bonds and 10-year U.S. Treasuries widened to more than 200 basis points yesterday, the highest since 1986, according to Bloomberg data cited by UniCredit today.
At the same time, money-market rates for euros and pounds climbed to the highest since mid-January, signaling the global squeeze on short-term bank lending may be returning. The three- month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for euros advanced 1 basis point to 4.4 percent yesterday, the highest since Jan. 18, according to the British Bankers' Association.
``Market conditions are the worst anyone in this industry can remember,'' said Alain Grisay, chief executive officer of London-based F&C Asset Management Plc, on a conference call with reporters today. ``I don't think anyone has a recollection of a total disappearance in liquidity. I just cannot remember a time when for six months there are billion of dollars worth of assets out there for which there is just no market.''
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Porsche Profit Rises on Cayenne SUV, Volkswagen Stake
(Bloomberg) -- Porsche SE, maker of the 911 sports car, said first-half profit jumped 44 percent as a revamped Cayenne sport-utility vehicle won buyers and the company added to its stake in Volkswagen AG.
Net income in the six months ended Jan. 31 rose to 1.3 billion euros ($1.97 billion) from 897 million euros a year earlier, the Stuttgart, Germany-based company said in a statement today. Pretax profit increased 24 percent to 1.66 billion euros.
Porsche doubled first-half sales of the Cayenne to 20,340 SUVs, boosting overall deliveries 19 percent, even as demand for the 911 and the Boxster roadster waned. The company has been raising its stake in Volkswagen, Europe's biggest carmaker, since buying a holding in September 2005. Porsche said yesterday that it plans to own a stake exceeding 50 percent.
First-half revenue increased 14 percent to 3.49 billion euros, Porsche said today, reiterating figures announced in January. Earnings figures were adjusted to take account of the effects of the expanding stake in Volkswagen as well as by hedging transactions related to the stock purchases, it said.
While Porsche has cut U.S. inventories to prepare for a possible economic slowdown, three new models and demand from emerging markets should spur sales in the financial year ending July 31 and produce a result prompting ``tears of joy,'' Wiedeking told investors Jan. 25.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Recovery may take longer than usual: Greenspan
(Reuters) - Economic growth has stalled and recovery may take longer than usual, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday.
"As of right now, U.S. economic growth is at zero," Greenspan said at an investment conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia's second-largest city. "We are at stall speed."
"Recovery might take longer to emerge than it usually does," he added.
The longer growth stays at zero, the more likely the world's largest economy would start to contract, he said, adding that globalization of trade could ease some shocks.
"Growing globalization of trade and the economy would facilitate the absorption of shocks in the U.S.," he said.
In updated economic forecasts released last week, the U.S. central bank lowered its outlook for 2008 growth by a half percentage point to between 1.3 percent and 2 percent, citing the prolonged housing slump and bottlenecks in credit markets.
Getty Images to be sold to Hellman & Friedman
Dresdner Bank says to support Ambac rescue
(Reuters) - Dresdner Bank, part of the Allianz (ALVG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) insurance group, intends to support a rescue package for U.S. bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) with a sum in the low double-digit millions of euros, the head of Dresdner's investment banking operations said on Monday.
Various rescue options for Ambac were now under discussion, Stefan Jentzsch told reporters. "If what is now on the table comes to pass then we will take part in the package," he said.
Auction-Rate Bonds Force `Predatory' Yields on Cities
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. municipal borrowers from Camden, New Jersey, to Sacramento, California, may face a third week of higher interest costs as failures in the auction-rate bond market persist.
Auctions run by banks to determine the rate on more than $45 billion of bonds didn't attract enough buyers last week, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. research. Even some successful auctions resulted in rates that were twice what borrowers paid in January, as investors who submitted bids demanded higher yields.
``The market right now is very predatory,'' said Marcia Maurer, chief financial officer of the Sacramento Regional County Sanitation District. The agency's weekly expense on $250 million of debt more than doubled to $343,000 from last month.
Investors enticed by rates that jumped as high as 20 percent are seeking opportunities in the $330 billion market no longer supported by dealers from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG that for years committed their capital to prevent failures. Thousands of unsuccessful auctions have driven up taxpayers' borrowing costs and left investors in the securities unable to get their money.
``Aggressive institutional investors have moved in to pick up auction-rate issues at short-term rates ranging from 5 percent to as much as 15 percent or more,'' George Friedlander, a municipal strategist at Citigroup in New York, said in a report at the end of last week.
Failure Rate
Four of the biggest agents that collect orders from bond dealers and determine winning rates reported failures on 258, or 67 percent, of 386 auctions Feb 22. That's in line with the average since Feb. 15, according to data compiled by Bank of America Corp. and Bloomberg.
Auction bonds, created in 1984, had until recent months allowed municipalities, hospitals, student lenders and funds to borrow long-term at money-market costs by adjusting interest rates through bidding every seven, 28 or 35 days.
When an auction fails, the rate reverts to a ``maximum'' specified in bond documents, or one pegged to money-market benchmarks. Holders of the bonds are stuck with the securities until a later auction attracts enough demand.
Hedge funds and other non-traditional investors showed ``strong interest'' last week in tax-exempt deals with high rates, Alex Roever, a JPMorgan fixed-income analyst, said in an e-mail. The average rate for seven-day municipal auction bonds rose to a record 6.59 percent on Feb. 13 from 4.03 percent the previous week, according to a Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association index.
Closed-End Funds
Many of last week's failures occurred at auctions of debt issued by closed-end funds with penalty rates ranging from 3 percent to 6 percent, data compiled by Deutsche Bank AG, Bank of New York Mellon Corp., Wells Fargo & Co. and Wilmington Trust Corp. show. Closed-end funds have about $60 billion in auction securities outstanding. Municipalities have $166 billion.
The auction-rate market began unraveling late last year as investor confidence in the health of bond insurers backing many of the securities waned. A bank bailout of New York-based Ambac Financial Group Inc. might come as soon as this week, according to a person familiar with rescue talks.
The collapse accelerated as banks including Citigroup and UBS, which have taken losses of about $162 billion from securities related to the collapse of subprime mortgages, grew unwilling to commit capital to support the auctions.
Ambac Rises on $3 Billion Rescue to Avert Downgrade
(Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc. rose to the highest in two weeks on investor expectations the bond insurer may be rescued from crippling credit-rating downgrades by getting $3 billion in new capital.
Ambac, the second-biggest bond insurer after MBIA Inc., may announce an agreement this week, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions who declined to be named because the details aren't complete. The New York-based company plans to raise $2.5 billion by selling stock at a discount to existing shareholders and $500 million from issuing debt, the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing people familiar with the matter.
``Maybe we'll see light at the end of the tunnel soon,'' said Geraud Charpin, head of European credit strategy at UBS in London. ``That would be good news for banks.''
Citigroup Inc. and seven other banks are working with Ambac to prevent rating cuts that would throw doubt on the credit quality of the $553 billion of municipal and asset-backed securities it guarantees. Banks stand to lose as much as $70 billion from any downgrades to Ambac, MBIA Inc. and FGIC Corp., Oppenheimer & Co. analysts estimated. Ambac rose as much as 6 percent before the official start of trading in New York.
The stock was 69 cents higher at $11.40 at 7:35 a.m., the highest since Feb. 11. Ambac jumped 16 percent in New York Stock Exchange trading on Feb. 22 after CNBC Television said banks and Ambac were preparing a deal.
Ambac spokeswoman Vandana Sharma didn't return a voicemail and e-mail seeking comment before office hours today.
Bank Talks
Rating companies are demanding bond insurers add more capital or face downgrades because of losses on subprime- mortgage securities they guaranteed. Moody's Investors Service indicated it will decide whether to cut Ambac and Armonk, New York-based MBIA by the end of the month. A downgrade of all the firms would cast doubt on $2.4 trillion of securities they back.
New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo last month arranged a meeting with banks to help avoid a downgrade of the bond insurers. Dinallo told a congressional hearing this month that the companies may be forced to separate their municipal insurance business from their asset-backed guarantees.
``Ambac was among the neediest cases, so if they can pull it off, there's hope for the others,'' said Jim Reid, credit strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London.
CDO Losses
Banks face losses from any rating cuts because they bought bond insurance to hedge the risks of collateralized debt obligations and other asset-backed securities that are now tumbling in value. CDOs package pools of securities then split them into pieces with different ratings.
UBS AG, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Wachovia Corp., Barclays Plc, Societe Generale SA, BNP Paribas SA and Dresdner Bank AG were also involved in the group discussing a rescue, said the person.
Dresdner, the German banking arm of Allianz SE, will contribute a ``small'' investment of ``two-digit million euros,'' Stefan Jentzsch, head of the Dresdner Kleinwort investment-banking unit, said at a press conference in Frankfurt today.
``We have long been waiting for banks to pay up,'' Philip Gisdakis, a Munich-based credit analyst at UniCredit SpA, Italy's biggest bank, wrote in a note to investors today. A ``solution without their participation would lead to large losses for them.''
Spokespeople for Citigroup, UBS, Wachovia and BNP declined to comment on the rescue plans. Spokespeople for RBS, Barclays and Societe Generale didn't immediately return e-mails or calls seeking comment.
FGIC Split
FGIC, which lost its top rating at Moody's last week, asked to be split into two separate businesses, one that insures municipal bonds and another for asset-backed securities. That would help protect municipal bonds from losses on the asset- backed debt.
Channel Reinsurance Ltd., a reinsurer for MBIA, had its top Aaa credit rating cut by Moody's on Feb. 22 because of a slump in the value of residential mortgage securities.
The rating was cut three levels to Aa3 with a negative outlook, Moody's said in a statement. Channel Re provides more than half the reinsurance bought by MBIA, according to MBIA filings. MBIA said last week all bond insurers must eventually divide their businesses.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Oil seen heading higher after topping $100
(Reuters) - Rampant oil prices are likely to continue to rise for a while yet as supply worries and investor demand for commodities outweigh concerns of economic slowdown.
Crude hit a record high of $101.32 on Wednesday and was trading at $98.64 at 9:45 a.m. EST on Thursday.
The price has climbed from below $50 at the start of 2007 and below $20 in early 2002.
"From here, we think that the next stage may well be a period of consolidation in the high $90s, and that could include increasingly frequent moves above $100," said Paul Horsnell of Barclays Capital.
Prices have risen in part because of expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, rather than increase oil output, will maintain or even cut supply at a meeting on March 5.
OPEC argues that factors beyond its control, such as speculation, are boosting prices. One OPEC minister made clear on Thursday that oil's push into triple digits would not bounce the group into changing supplies.
"We will not just react to $100 oil," Qatar's oil minister, Abdullah al-Attiyah, told Reuters by telephone. "OPEC will move when it sees physical demand for its oil."
UBS to Shorten Ospel Term to One Year at Re-election
(Bloomberg) -- UBS AG said it would reduce Chairman Marcel Ospel's next term of office to one year from three after Europe's largest bank by assets reported a record loss.
Ospel, 58, was a force behind the merger of Swiss Bank Corp. and Union Bank of Switzerland that created UBS in 1998 and has been chairman for seven years. UBS posted a 12.5 billion-franc ($11.4 billion) fourth-quarter loss after an expansion into debt trading led to writedowns when the U.S. housing market slumped.
``Shareholders have a lack of confidence and that is linked to Ospel's name,'' said Vinzenz Mathys, an analyst at the Ethos Foundation, an investor in UBS calling for a special audit of the bank's risk controls. ``We are disappointed because UBS could have proposed new candidates.''
Shareholders will vote on re-electing Ospel and two other board members to shortened terms at the annual general meeting on April 23, Zurich-based UBS said in an e-mailed statement today. Sergio Marchionne, Fiat SpA's chief executive officer, was named a non-executive vice chairman.
UBS's losses already led to the departures of former CEO Peter Wuffli, 50, his finance chief Clive Standish, 54, and Huw Jenkins, 50, who ran the investment bank.
``It will take at least a year, if not longer, to clean up things at UBS and Ospel being around means there will be no clean cut with mistakes of the past,'' said Ralf Rybarczyk, who manages 1.5 billion francs at DWS Investment GmbH, including UBS shares.
`Current Challenges'
Peter Voser, finance director at Royal Dutch Shell Plc, and Larry Weinbach, the former chairman of Unisys Corp., will also stand for re-election to one-year board terms at the annual meeting, UBS said. Voser, 49, will take over from Weinbach, 68, as chairman of the audit committee. In subsequent elections, all board members will be elected for one year, the company said.
Marchionne, 55, was named non-executive vice chairman to replace Marco Suter, 49, who was an executive vice chairman before taking on the role of chief financial officer in October. Italian newspaper MF reported on Feb. 15 that Marchionne was a possible replacement for Ospel, which the Fiat executive denied. He said in a statement today his new role is ``absolutely compatible'' with running Fiat.
``With these moves we have strengthened the leadership structure in order to manage UBS's current challenges,'' Ospel said in the statement. ``I proposed the new tenure rule to the board, and am prepared, pursuant to their request, to stand for re-election for one year.''
UBS rose 48 centimes, or 1.3 percent, to 36.80 francs by 2:08 p.m. in Swiss trading. The stock has fallen 30 percent this year, the fourth-worst performance on the 60-member Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index.
Morgan Stanley Hires Kenneth deRegt to New Role Overseeing Risk
(Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value, hired Kenneth deRegt to a new position in the office of the chairman, where he will oversee risk management and internal controls.
DeRegt, who worked at Morgan Stanley for 20 years before joining Aetos Capital in 2002, will start on Feb. 25 and join the firm's management committee, according to an internal memo today from John Mack, Morgan Stanley's chief executive officer. The contents of the memo were confirmed by Mark Lake, a spokesman in New York.
Philadelphia Fed February Factory Index Falls to -24
(Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region unexpectedly contracted the most since February 2001, the eve of the last recession, as measures of new orders and shipments reflected weakening demand.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index declined to a minus 24 from minus 20.9 in January, the bank said today. Readings less than zero signal contraction. The Philadelphia Fed's general economic index averaged 5.1 in 2007.
A two-year housing slump, exacerbated by tighter credit conditions, is spilling over to other industries, pushing the economy to the brink of recession. The Fed, after cutting interest rates at the fastest pace since 1990 last month, has said it is ready to move in a ``timely'' manner to avert a downturn.
``The Philadelphia Fed survey is sending clear signals that the U.S. economy is heading for a recession,'' said Lena Komileva, chief economist at Tullett Prebon in London, who forecast a minus 25 reading. ``The speed and magnitude of the recent decline in the series signals a very sharp deterioration.''
Economists had forecast the Philadelphia manufacturing index would rise to minus 10.0, according to the median of 54 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 0 to minus 25.0.
New Orders
The Philadelphia Fed's measure of new orders rose to minus 10.9 from minus 15.2 the prior month, and a measure of shipments fell to minus 12.2 from minus 2.3 the prior month.
A gauge of unfilled orders dropped to minus 10.9 from minus 6.2, while the index of inventories declined to minus 13 from minus 11.7 the prior month.
The employment index gained to 2.5 from minus 1.5 a month earlier, the Philadelphia Fed said. An index of prices paid dropped to 46.6 from 49.8, while a gauge of prices received weakened to 24.3 from 32.
The report provides one of the month's earliest clues to the state of manufacturing nationwide. Similar data from the New York Fed released last week showed manufacturing contracted in the New York region in February for the first time in almost three years.
The Philadelphia Fed region, which comprises eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware, is more vulnerable to the auto slump and less exposed to financial services and trade than the New York region, economists said.
Nationwide Measure
Nationwide, manufacturing grew in January after contracting in December by the most in almost five years, according to a Feb. 1 survey from the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM survey on manufacturing in February is due out March 3.
The index measuring the manufacturing outlook for six months from now fell to minus 16.9 from 5.2, today's report showed.
The Fed's January rate cuts came as rising subprime defaults led to a global tightening of credit standards and declines in equity prices. Investors are betting on a half-point rate reduction, to 2.5 percent, at the March 18 Fed meeting.
The U.S. economy will probably grow at a 0.5 percent pace in the first quarter and a 1 percent rate in the following three months, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists taken the first week of February. Economists surveyed said a recession this year was an even bet.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
U.S. Stocks Climb, Erasing Earlier Drop; Hewlett-Packard Gains
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, led by technology and bank shares, after Hewlett-Packard Co.'s profit topped estimates and investor William Ackman proposed a restructuring of bond insurers in an effort to minimize credit losses.
Hewlett-Packard, the biggest maker of personal computers, climbed the most in two years and helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average erase a 109-point drop. Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. led financial shares to their steepest gain in a week on Ackman's plan. TJX Cos., owner of the T.J. Maxx and Marshalls discount chains, led a rally in retailers after posting profit that topped analysts' estimates.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 2.41 points, or 0.2 percent, to 1,351.19 at 12:57 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 12.45, or 0.1 percent, to 12,349.67. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 6.9, or 0.3 percent, to 2,313.1. About four stocks rose for every three that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.
Stocks dropped earlier in the day on concern competition will reduce profits among wireless networks and faster inflation will keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates.
Hewlett-Packard rose $3.33 to $47.28 First-quarter net income increased 38 percent to $2.13 billion, or 80 cents a share, from $1.55 billion, or 55 cents, a year ago. Excluding expenses for acquisitions, profit was 86 cents a share, five cents more than the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The company also raised its annual sales forecast on increasing demand overseas.
Tech Rally
Technology companies in the S&P 500 added 1.3 percent as a group, the steepest advance among 10 industries.
Wells Fargo, the biggest bank on the West coast, climbed 67 cents to $30.53. Citigroup added 39 cents to $25.71.
Ackman distributed a plan to restructure bond insurers that may prevent dividends from being paid to the parent companies and minimize losses for holders of asset-backed securities.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Wal-Mart Profit Climbs on Grocery, Electronics Sales
(Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, said fourth-quarter profit rose more than analysts estimated after it stepped up U.S. holiday discounts and boosted sales in Asia and Latin America.
Full-year earnings will be at most $3.43 a share, less than analysts' projections, the retailer said today. Wal-Mart gained 1 percent in New York trading.
International sales advanced 19 percent, led by China, Brazil and Argentina. In the U.S., Wal-Mart drew cash-strapped customers with an expanded consumer-electronics section and more discounts on groceries. Quarterly sales at stores open at least a year outpaced Target Corp. for the first time in 3 1/2 years.
``Nobody gets rich selling groceries, unfortunately, but I do think it's a great way to drive traffic,'' Peter Sorrentino, a senior portfolio manager at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``In this economic environment, if the consumer's shifting down in terms of the way they're spending their dollars, that benefits Wal-Mart.''
Sorrentino helps oversee $12 billion in assets including Wal-Mart shares.
Net income climbed 4 percent to $4.1 billion, or $1.02 a share, from $3.94 billion, or 95 cents, a year earlier, the Bentonville, Arkansas-based company said today in a statement. Excluding one-time items, profit beat estimates by 2 cents.
Wal-Mart said it expects to earn between 70 cents and 74 cents a share in the current quarter and between $3.30 and $3.43 for the year that ends in early 2009. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg projected profit of 74 cents for the quarter and $3.44 for the year.
Share Performance
Wal-Mart rose 51 cents to $49.95 at 9:34 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares increased 4 percent this year before today, compared with an 8.1 percent decrease in the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
Revenue for the three months that ended Jan. 31 climbed 8.4 percent to $107.4 billion, the first time it exceeded $100 billion, Wal-Mart said.
Excluding costs including a writedown at its Japan unit, Wal-Mart earned $1.04 a share. Nineteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg projected average profit of $1.02.
``Clearly our underlying operational performance exceeded the expectations we had at the beginning of the quarter,'' Chief Executive Officer H. Lee Scott said on a recorded call. The performance of the U.S. economy ``will be a critical factor'' this year, he said.
Consumer Spending
Consumers have curtailed outlays on extras as they find themselves spending more for food, fuel and housing. Before the holiday season, Wal-Mart made price cuts earlier and on 20 percent more items. Last month, the retailer introduced its own ``economic stimulus'' package, marking down groceries, medicines, fitness equipment and electronics as much as 30 percent.
While Wal-Mart has suffered from a slowing U.S. economy because many of its customers live paycheck to paycheck, the retailer has also gained because of its appeal as a destination for cost-conscious shoppers, said David Abella, an analyst at Rochdale Investment Management in New York with $2.5 billion in assets including Wal-Mart shares.
``They are benefiting from it at the expense of competitors,'' said Abella. ``The low-price effort, which is working especially well because of the slowdown, probably helped get some market share back from Target.''
Banks "quietly" borrow $50 billion from Fed: report
(Reuters) - Banks in the United States have been quietly borrowing "massive amounts" from the U.S. Federal Reserve in recent weeks, using a new measure the Fed introduced two months ago to help ease the credit crunch, according to a report on the web site of The Financial Times.
The newspaper said the use of the Fed's Term Auction Facility (TAF), which allows banks to borrow at relatively attractive rates against a wide range of their assets, saw borrowing of nearly $50 billion of one-month funds from the Fed by mid-February.
Fed's Stern says rate cuts should protect economy
(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are appropriate to restore stability in financial markets and prevent damage to the broader economy, Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern said on Tuesday.
"Against the backdrop of the financial shocks that have beset the economy and their implications for the outlook, the reduction in the funds rate target appears wholly appropriate," he said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Financial Planning Association of Minnesota.
The Fed is responsible for restoring financial stability and protecting the broad economy from damage, Stern said.
"Policy is now better positioned to attain these objectives than formerly," he added.
Stern said the current situation is reminiscent of the early 1990s, when the economy faced "headwinds" after the 1990-91 recession, particularly tighter credit and a real estate bust.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Bayer stops late-stage Nexavar trial
(Reuters) - Bayer HealthCare, a U.S.-based unit of Bayer AG (BAYG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), stopped a late-stage trial of Nexavar in patients with non-small cell lung cancer, after an independent data monitoring committee concluded that the study would not meet the main goal of improved overall survival.
In the late-stage study, patients received Nexavar in combination with chemotherapeutic drugs carboplatin and paclitaxel.
Bayer said higher mortality was observed in a certain subset of patients treated with the combination of Nexavar and the chemotherapeutic drugs, versus those treated with carboplatin and paclitaxel alone.
Bayer and co-developer Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc (ONXX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) will review the findings of the analysis to determine what, if any, impact they have on other ongoing Nexavar lung cancer trials.
Qatar Buys Credit Suisse Shares, Prime Minister Says
(Bloomberg) -- Qatar is buying shares in Credit Suisse Group and plans to spend as much as $15 billion on European and U.S. bank stocks over the next year, the Gulf state's prime minister said in an interview.
``We have a relation with Credit Suisse and we bought some of the stock from the market, actually, but I cannot say what percentage because still we are in the process,'' Sheikh Hamad bin Jasim bin Jaber al-Thani, who is also chief executive officer of the Qatar Investment Authority, said in an interview late yesterday in Doha.
Persian Gulf sovereign wealth funds, whose coffers are swelling from near-record oil prices, and counterparts in Asia have been snapping up stakes in banks battered by U.S. subprime mortgage losses. Citigroup Inc. received $14.5 billion from investors including Singapore and Kuwait since mid-December.
``Subprime losses are clearly not confined to U.S. banks and European banks are seeking funding,'' Giyas Gokkent, head of research at National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC, said in a phone interview today. ``Gulf funds have surpluses to spend and are looking for long-term appreciation. If investments help develop their domestic financial markets too, so much the better.''
Bruno Daher, Credit Suisse's Dubai-based co-CEO for the Middle East, declined to comment when contacted on his mobile phone today, as did Zurich-based spokesman Marc Dosch. Credit Suisse jumped 1.60 Swiss francs, or 2.9 percent, to 56.60 francs ($51.33) at 1:13 p.m. in Swiss trading.
Buying Stakes
Credit Suisse said on Feb. 12 that fourth-quarter profit fell 72 percent after 1.3 billion francs of writedowns on debt and leveraged loans. The stock has fallen 31 percent since Oct. 10. Brady Dougan, CEO of Switzerland's second-biggest bank, scaled back risky investments before the debt-market slump that forced UBS AG, Switzerland's biggest bank, to report $14 billion in writedowns.
In the past six months, sovereign wealth funds made investments in Citigroup, Merrill Lynch & Co., Morgan Stanley and UBS, which is seeking shareholder approval to raise 13 billion Swiss francs from Singapore and an unidentified Middle Eastern investor through a sale of bonds convertible into shares.
Qatar's decision to buy Credit Suisse stock in the open market ``makes all the difference'' to investor confidence in the bank, according to Christof Reichmuth, CEO of Luzern-based Private Bank Reichmuth & Co.
`Sign of Strength'
``They are not selling equity or mandatory convertible bonds to boost their capital like UBS did,'' he said. ``Even though 2008 won't be a great year for Credit Suisse either, this should be read as a sign of strength rather than weakness.''
Wall Street banks have raised at least $59 billion, mostly from investors in the Middle East and Asia. Citigroup was propped up in November by a $7.5 billion investment from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the world's richest sovereign fund, after losing almost half its market value.
State-managed funds in countries including Kuwait, Abu Dhabi and South Korea have ballooned to $3.2 trillion in assets. Fueled by record oil prices and rising currency reserves, sovereign fund assets may gain fourfold to $12 trillion by 2015, equal to the capitalization of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, according to Morgan Stanley estimates.
First European Bank
Credit Suisse in March 2006 became the first European bank to get a license for the Qatar Financial Centre, a self-regulated business park designed to attract lenders to the Gulf state as part of a plan to diversify the economy away from oil and gas. The Swiss bank ``has had a long-standing relationship with Qatar,'' Joachim Straehle, head of private banking for Asia, the Middle East and Russia, said at the time.
When the Qatar Investment Authority sought to buy U.K. supermarket chain J Sainsbury Plc last year, Credit Suisse was among three European banks that agreed to underwrite $19 billion of loans to help pay for the buyout. Qatar in November abandoned the bid, citing ``deterioration'' in credit markets and demands by J Sainsbury's pension fund.
The Qatar Investment Authority is the largest shareholder in J Sainsbury, with a 25 percent stake, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The authority is the second-biggest investor in French publisher Lagardere SCA, and owns shares in Middle Eastern banks including Beirut-based BLC Bank SAL and Jordan's Housing Bank for Trade & Finance. It also bought a $205 million stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. before the Beijing- based lender's 2006 initial share sale, according to a prospectus published at the time. The authority doesn't disclose holdings beyond regulatory requirements.
The Kuwait Investment Authority, which manages an estimated $250 billion for the Gulf state, is keen to buy into European financial companies ``if we are invited,'' Managing Director Bader al-Saad said last month.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Banks at Risk From $203 Billion Writedowns, Says UBS
(Bloomberg) -- The world's banks ``remain at risk'' of up to $203 billion in additional writedowns, largely because the bond insurance crisis could worsen, UBS AG said.
``Banks have made progress in credit-market related writedowns,'' London-based UBS analyst Philip Finch said in a note to investors today. ``But more are expected,'' he added.
Writedowns for collateralized debt obligations and subprime related losses already total $150 billion, Finch estimated. That could rise by a further $120 billion for CDOs, $50 billion for structured investment vehicles, $18 billion for commercial mortgage-backed securities and $15 billion for leveraged buyouts, UBS said. ``Risks are rising and spreading and liquidity conditions are still far from normal,'' the note said.
U.S. monoline insurers MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. are struggling to maintain the AAA ratings on their insurance units because of losses on residential mortgages, exposing banks to possible writedowns on CDOs guaranteed by the insurers. Monoline insurers guarantee the repayment of bond principal and interest in the event of defaults.
Ambac was the first monoline insurer to ever be downgraded when Fitch Ratings cut it to AA from AAA in January, citing ``significant uncertainty'' over the insurer's business model.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
U.S. December Trade Gap Narrows More Than Forecast
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in December as exports reached record levels and Americans spent less on imported autos and goods from China.
The gap between imports and exports shrank 6.9 percent, the biggest decrease in more than a year, to $58.8 billion from $63.1 billion in November, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The deficit for all of 2007 decreased for the first time in six years.
A weaker dollar and expansion of emerging economies are feeding overseas sales for U.S.-made goods and may forestall a deeper slump at U.S. manufacturers. The narrowing deficit is one of the few remaining bright spots for the economy and will probably lead the government to increase its estimate of fourth- quarter gross domestic product later this month.
``The trade balance is going to continue to be a support for the economy,'' said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. ``The drop in imports is probably consistent with the view the domestic economy is turning quite soft.''
Economists had forecast the gap would narrow to $61.5 billion, according to the median of 76 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates of the deficit ranged from $57 billion to $66.5 billion.
The dollar, which had fallen against the euro earlier today, stayed lower after the report. It traded at $1.4609 per euro at 8:37 a.m. in New York, from $1.4573 late yesterday. The U.S. currency was little changed versus the yen, at 108.30 yen per dollar.
2007 Deficit Shrinks
For all of last year, the deficit shrank 6.2 percent to $711.6 billion, the biggest decrease since 1991. Last year was the first time the trade gap narrowed since 2001.
Exports rose 1.5 percent to $144.3 billion in December, setting a record for a 10th straight month and reflecting more demand for U.S. made capital equipment and industrial supplies. For the year, exports rose 12 percent to a record $1.622 trillion.
Imports in December declined 1.1 percent to $203.1 billion, reflecting lower demand for foreign-made autos, consumer goods, food and capital equipment.
Also contributing to the drop in imports was a 14 percent decline in purchases from China, which helped shrink the month's trade gap with the Asian nation 22 percent to $18.8 billion. Petroleum imports rose 4.2 percent to a record $36 billion as the average price rose to $82.76 a barrel, also the highest monthly average ever. Prices increased in late December and early January and may push up the value of imports for the January report. They have since declined.
Fourth-Quarter Growth
Today's report may cause the Commerce Department to revise its estimate of fourth-quarter economic growth higher. The government projected last month that the trade gap narrowed to a $521 billion annual pace in the last three months of 2007. For all of last year, trade contributed 0.55 percentage point to growth, the most since 1991.
The government will release a revised estimate of the expansion for the last three months of 2007 on Feb. 28.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are scheduled to testify to the Senate Banking Committee later today on the state of the U.S. expansion. Central bank policy makers have forecast the economy will avoid a recession.
``The Fed's policy actions should help to promote a pickup in growth over time,'' Fed Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said in a speech on Feb. 12. ``I consider it most probable that the U.S. economy will experience slow growth, and not outright recession, in coming quarters.''
Fed's Rate Cuts
The Fed's Open Market Committee is scheduled to next vote on interest-rate policy on March 18. Policy makers lowered the benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in an emergency decision announced Jan. 22 and followed that with a half-point cut at the scheduled Jan. 29-30 meeting.
After eliminating the influence of prices, the trade deficit decreased to $49.3 billion from $53.6 billion. This is the figure the government uses in calculating GDP.
For the year, the trade deficit with China, the second- largest U.S. trading partner after Canada, increased 10 percent to a record $256.3 billion.
The gap with China is a political sticking point for the U.S. and other countries.
Group of Seven policy makers, meeting in Tokyo last weekend, said China should do more to defuse global trade tensions by allowing the yuan to climb against the dollar and other currencies. The G-7 also forecast the U.S. economy may slow further, eroding global growth.
MBIA Says It Can Weather Slump, Doesn't Need Bailout
(Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc., the world's biggest bond insurer, said it is equipped to survive the slump in prices of mortgage securities and dismissed suggestions that the industry needs a rescue or stronger federal oversight.
``A bailout of highly credit-worthy companies who, at most, are at risk of losing the very highest ratings available, is misplaced,'' MBIA Chief Financial Officer Charles Chaplin said in prepared remarks to be delivered today at a hearing of the House Financial Services subcommittee on capital markets in Washington.
Chaplin and Ambac Financial Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Michael Callen will make their presentations on Capitol Hill as they try to fend off credit rating downgrades and critics who say the companies may be headed for bankruptcy. One of the most vocal skeptics, hedge fund manager William Ackman, will also deliver remarks today alongside the MBIA and Ambac executives.
MBIA, based in Armonk, New York, and Ambac are among five companies struggling to maintain their top bond insurance credit ratings after a slump in the value of mortgage-linked securities the companies guaranteed. Standard & Poor's, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings are reviewing MBIA's top rating for a possible downgrade. Fitch already cut its AAA ratings on New York-based Ambac's insurance unit to AA. Ambac is also being scrutinized by Moody's and S&P.
``MBIA is more than adequately capitalized to meet obligations to policyholders,'' Chaplin, 51, said in his testimony.
Rescue Plans
Ambac said in a statement last night that Callen will tell the committee the company's main challenge is to achieve ``ratings stability.''
MBIA rose 61 cents to $12.25 at 9:38 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Ambac climbed 19 cents to $9.56.
MBIA and Ambac tumbled more than 80 percent in the past year in New York trading as they posted record losses of more than $5 billion and concern grew the companies may not get enough capital to sustain their ratings, casting doubt on $2.4 trillion of municipal and structured finance debt.
New York Insurance Department Superintendent Eric Dinallo last month organized banks to begin plans for a rescue of the insurers and said he may consider strengthening his oversight. Dinallo will also appear before the committee today, as will New York Governor Eliot Spitzer, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission director Erik Sirri and Keith M. Buckley, a group managing director at Fitch.
Buffett's Offer
Dinallo will tell lawmakers he will consider splitting the bond insurers into two businesses, according to prepared testimony. ``One would have the municipal bond policies and any other healthy parts of the business,'' Dinallo said. ``The other would have the structured finance and problem parts of the business.''
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett yesterday offered to take over $800 billion of the municipal debt guaranteed by MBIA, Ambac and FGIC Corp., the fourth-largest bond insurer. Ambac yesterday said it rejected the offer. Two other insurers haven't responded, Buffett told CNBC television this week.
Spitzer told CNBC today that while Buffett's proposal would benefit municipalities, it wouldn't help the ``bad bank'' piece of the bond insurers' business. ``We don't want to create that schism yet if it can be avoided,'' Spitzer said.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
YRC to cut 1,100 jobs
(Reuters) - North America's largest trucking company, YRC Worldwide Inc (YRCW.O: Quote, Profile, Research), said on Wednesday that as part of its plans to shut 27 service centers it will cut approximately 1,100 jobs.
In a presentation to analysts that was filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Chief Executive Bill Zollars said the company expects cash proceeds from property sales of between $8 million to $10 million.
YRC said that as part of the restructuring plan more than 600 trucks and 1,200 trailers would be removed from its fleet.
NY AG probes health insurers over reimbursement
(Reuters) - New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said on Wednesday he is conducting an industry- wide probe of health insurers into an alleged scheme to defraud consumers by manipulating reimbursement rates.
At the center of the scheme is Ingenix, the nation's provider of health care billing information, which serves as a conduit for rate data to the largest insurers in the country, Cuomo said in a statement.
Cuomo intends to sue Ingenix, its parent, UnitedHealth Group Inc, and three additional subsidiaries.
Paulson sees slower economy, to rush tax rebates
(Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Wednesday stood by his view that the economy will avoid recession this year and grow at a slower pace, and that the Treasury will act quickly to distribute tax rebate payments.
"The U.S. economy is diverse and resilient, and our long-term fundamentals are healthy. I believe our economy will continue to grow, although at a slower pace than we have seen in recent years," Paulson said in prepared testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Budget Committee.
President George W. Bush on Wednesday is expected to sign into law a $152 billion fiscal stimulus package that will provide tax rebates to some 130 million Americans, with most about $600 for an individual and $1,200 for a couple.
Paulson said the Internal Revenue Service would simultaneously manage the spring tax filing season and preparations for issuing the rebate payments starting in early May.
"Payments will be largely completed this summer, putting cash in the hands of millions of Americans at a time when our economy is experiencing slower growth," he said. "Together, the payments to individuals and the incentives for businesses will help create more than half a million jobs by the end of this year."
Paulson also called on Congress to aid the housing sector by passing legislation that will modernize the Federal Housing Administration and create a new, stronger regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored housing finance enterprises.
Under the stimulus plan, Fannie and Freddie will be temporarily allowed to invest in larger mortgages, providing more resources for refinancing troubled mortgages in costly coastal housing markets.
Fed Interest-Rate Cuts Fail to Lower Borrowing Costs
(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts last month have failed to lower borrowing costs for many companies and households, increasing the chance of further reductions from the central bank.
Companies are paying more to borrow now than before the Fed reduced its benchmark rate by 1.25 percentage point over nine days in January, based on data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. Rates on so-called jumbo mortgages, those above $417,000, have increased in the past month, making it tougher to sell properties and risking further price declines.
``It's the clogging up of the credit markets that worries me most,'' Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein said in an interview in New York. ``The Fed has done a lot of cutting, the question is whether it's going to get the traction that it did in the past.''
Banks and investors are demanding greater compensation for offering credit as losses mount on subprime-mortgage securities and concerns grow that ratings of bond insurers will be cut. Elevated borrowing costs mean Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will have to reduce rates further to revive the economy, Fed watchers said.
``The problem is that every piece of news we're getting continues to be bad,'' said Stephen Cecchetti, a former New York Fed bank research director, and now a professor at Brandeis University in Waltham, Massachusetts. ``They will have to ease more. It's the only thing they can do.''
`Close to 50-50'
Feldstein, who heads the National Bureau of Economic Research, the group that sets the dates for U.S. economic cycles, said the chance of a recession is ``close to 50-50.''
Traders now see a 100 percent chance of at least a half- point reduction at or before the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 meeting, up from 68 percent on Jan. 31, when the Fed cited tighter credit conditions as a reason for lowering rates. Futures show 20 percent odds of a three-quarter point move.
Futures rallied even after a government report today showed retail sales rose 0.3 percent in January from December, against the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey for a decline. Economists said the gain, led by car and gasoline purchases, wasn't enough to indicate Fed rate cuts are affecting spending.
Bernanke may give an update of his outlook tomorrow when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee at a hearing on the economy and financial markets. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox are also scheduled to appear.
Bond Premiums
The extra yield investors demand to buy investment-grade U.S. corporate bonds rose to 2.37 percentage point Feb. 12 from 2.24 percentage point on Jan. 21, Merrill data show. For high- risk, high-yield securities, premiums over Treasury securities have risen a quarter-point, Merrill data show.
``The increase in credit spreads has sort of worked against our policy,'' San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen told reporters at her bank yesterday. ``The fact that the spreads went up so dramatically really resulted in an effective tightening of financial conditions that our cuts were partly meant to address.''
Those cuts were the fastest since the federal funds rate became the principal policy tool around 1990. The Fed lowered the rate by 75 basis points on Jan. 22 in an emergency move, then by an additional 50 basis points at the regular meeting on Jan. 30. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
More Rate Cuts
Beyond March, traders expect quarter-point rate reductions at the following FOMC meetings in April and June, based on futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade.
In the market where banks lend to each other, borrowing costs have receded since the Fed began special auctions of funds in December. The three-month dollar London Interbank Offered Rate fell to 12 basis points over the Fed's target rate today, from more than 1 percentage point above it two months ago.
Yellen acknowledged in a Feb. 7 speech, repeated yesterday, that borrowers with greater default risk are paying more for loans. The markets for securities backed by mortgages ``are not functioning efficiently, or may not be functioning much at all,'' she said.
``As long as the credit strains remain and might even still be intensifying, it certainly supports the case for continuing to ease aggressively,'' said Brian Sack, a former Fed research manager who is now senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington. ``We don't need spreads to come down. We do need them to stop widening.''
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